LightCounting releases a new report titled “Mega Datacenter Optics”
This report analyzes the impact of mega datacenters on the market for Ethernet optical transceivers and DWDM optics. It includes an updated forecast for Ethernet and DWDM modules - the two fastest growing market segments, which are directly impacted by mega datacenter deployments.
Historical data and forecast for sales of Ethernet optics (Figure 1) shows contributions of different segments to the total market. Sales of Ethernet optics for Cloud applications, including the mega datacenters of Cloud companies, accounted for 42% of all Ethernet optics sales in 2015, compared to 30% in 2012. The contribution of the Cloud segment is the most significant to the sales of 40GbE and above data rate products and it is projected to increase from 52% in 2015 to 67% in 2021.
Figure 1: Sales of Ethernet Transceivers by Market Segment
LightCounting estimates that sales of Ethernet optics to the Top 3 Cloud companies exceeded $250 million in 2015 and their contribution to the market will continue to increase. However, our analysis suggests that it will not be Amazon, Google and Microsoft that will drive most of the growth of the Ethernet transceiver market in 2016-2021. It will probably be up to Alibaba, Baidu, Facebook, LinkedIn, Tencent and many other emerging Internet commerce companies to lead the market's growth and collectively reshape the industry supply chain in the next 5 years.
The argument above is based on a lot of research, estimates and modeling, but it can be supported by a simple intuitive observation: the Top 3 Cloud companies are in a more mature stage of development and there will be limits to how large these companies and their mega datacenters can become. Many other Internet and cloud services companies are still in early stages of growth and datacenter infrastructure deployments. These businesses are likely to grow faster and invest more in the next 5 years.