LightCounting releases a preview of the market forecast for Ethernet transceivers, including 200GbE and 400GbE modules
Amazon, Google and Microsoft are calling the shots in the market for high-speed Ethernet optics and collectively spent more than $250 million on Ethernet transceivers in 2015. These companies will continue to lead adoption of new data rates in 2016-2024, as illustrated in the figure below.
Figure: Ethernet transceivers shipped to Amazon, Google and Microsoft
According to the latest data collected by LightCounting from more than 20 leading optical component and module vendors, global sales of Ethernet transceivers exceeded $1.8 billion in 2015. Sales to the leading Web2.0/cloud companies account for a modest part of the total market, but hold a much larger share in sales of 40GbE and 100GbE products.
The gap between early adopters of next-generation Ethernet products and the rest of the market is increasing and it is important to account for different segments of customers in forecasting future demand. LightCounting’s latest forecast is based on an improved model, which now accounts for five different customer segments. This includes three main segments for Ethernet optics: telecom, enterprise and datacenters. The last segment is further split into top 3 Web2.0s, Other Tier 1 Web 2.0s, and Tier 2 datacenter operators.
A preview of the latest forecast is being made available to LightCounting clients today. Our preliminary analysis has total revenue for the 5-year forecast period down 11% from our previous forecast, mainly due to lower than expected shipment of products in 2015. In particular, 40GbE 100 m QSFP+, 40GbE eSR 300m QSFP+, and 100GbE 10 km CFP2/4 shipments in 2015 were less than forecast, and had a significant impact on 2015 total revenues due to the relatively high prices of these modules. 10GbE 10km SFP+ transceivers were also 2 million units below our 2015 forecast, and contributed significantly to the overall revenue reduction. Prices for two new products - 40GbE eSR 300m QSFP+, and 100GbE 40km modules - were much lower than expected and this also had a significant impact on the 2015 revenues.
The final version of the ethernet forecast will be released along with Mega Datacenter Optics report on March 10th.
For more information on the report, please click here. To purchase the report, please contact George at [email protected]